| Biography | |
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 Prof. Amalendu Bhunia University of Kalyani, India |
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| Title: Impact of Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market on the Economic Growth: An Evidence of the Top Five Economies in the World | |
| Abstract: This study examines the impact of macroeconomic variables and stock market on the economic growth of the top five economies in the world. The study also examines the volatility and leverage effect of the stock markets of the top five economies. The global economy began to slow in 2019 and the global growth will be negative in 2020 along with the top five economies in the world except China due to the Covid-19 Pandemic, consequent economic shutdowns, US-China trade war ‘bigger than threat than Coronavirus’, decrease in private consumption, decrease in global demand, disruption in global supply chain, weak macroeconomic fundamentals in each countries, withdrawal of investments by the investors, jobless claims worse than expected around the globe, etc. At the same time, the Covid-19 crisis has impacted asset valuations, increased volatility, and led to reduced liquidity in many cases. This study is based on daily time series data obtained from yahoo.finance, Bloomberg and Statista database for the period from January 1, 2020 to August 31, 2020. While analysing the data, descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, ADF unit root tests, GARCH models, and ARDL bound test have been used. GARCH (1,1) model test results show that the stock markets are volatile except China and both EGARCH (1,1) and TARCH (1,1) model demonstrates that there exist a leverage effect in the USA stock market. ARDL bound test results show that all the macroeconomic variables in terms of crude oil price, inflation rates, unemployment rates, IIP and stock market are related to the economic growth of the respective economies, however, in the short-run, crude oil price and stock market positively affect the economic growth of China and India and inflation rates and unemployment rates negatively affect the economic growth of China and India. But IIP positively affect the Chinese economic growth and negatively affect the India’s economic growth. Although, all the selected macroeconomic variables and stock market negatively affect the economic growth of the USA, Japan and Germany. Therefore, the respective Governments should follow policies aimed at creating some sense of stability in the market and try to reduce impacts of economic instabilities along with specification of clear rules for investment and provide incentives to attract permanent foreign equity investment. Again, more government spending and encouraging investment to create job opportunities can reduce the unemployment rates. Finally, respective Governments have to increase the output growth; money supply, interest rates and government spending for controlling the inflation. | |
| Biography: Dr. Amalendu Bhunia [M.Com. (1st Class), M. Phil. (1st Class), P.G.D.F.M. (1st Class), Ph.D.], is Professor, Department of Commerce, University of Kalyani, West Bengal, India. He has experience in teaching in the subject of finance, taxation, and statistics for more than 20 years. He has published 108 research articles and 8 books in the national and international repute. At present, his Google Scholar Citation is 1101 with h-index 18. He has completed 2 major and 2 minor research projects, funded by the UGC and ICSSR, India. His research interests are in the financial markets, corporate finance, international finance and behavioural finance. He has presented 52 research papers in various international and national conferences. Presently he is serving as a member of the editorial board in 21 international journals. He has received many awards for publishing and presenting his research papers. He served as an Editor-in-Chief, American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Business (Science Published Group, the USA) for two years. Now, he is an Editor-in-Chief, Indo-Asian Journal of Finance and Accounting (Academic Research Foundations Journals, India). Dr. Bhunia acted as an invited/keynote speaker in 45 national, 20 international and 6 foreign conferences. Five research scholars have awarded the Ph.D. degree and seven scholars have awarded the M.Phil. degree under his supervision. | |
